2801-Road Johnson Rd · Frazier Park, CA 93225

$999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1979
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located within ABC Unified high school district; Located at latitude 34.822108, longitude -118.93369
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Urban community

Exterior

• Utilities: No water source listed; No sewer or septic
• Home design: Single-family mobile home remains on property; Single-story
• Construction: Living area and year built from public records
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level home with front entry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $999.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $999).
• Recommended offer: $969 (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 946.9% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $280 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($969) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $969 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 100.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 946.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 3359.49%
• DSCR: 150.48
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 178.78×
• Total profit: $49,729
• Equity at exit: $149

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 385.63×
• Total profit: $107,588
• Equity at exit: $86

Cash invested: $280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93225

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1 /mo · $15/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9

Max offer price $999

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $783	+0% $783	+5% $783	+10% $782
Rent	-10% $704	-5% $744	+0% $783	+5% $823	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $783	base $783	+0.5pp $783	+1.0pp $783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250
• Closing costs: $30
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2801 Johnson Rd #17 Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	672	$1,000	$1.49	2d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $999 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $999 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $999 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $999 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $999 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $999 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 11 d/yr ≥88°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$56
• − Property taxes: −$15
• − Insurance: −$5
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$29
• Taxable income: $9,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,394
• After-tax cash flow: $7,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Frazier Park

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1064
• US rank: #25253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frazier Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,532

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.47%
• Current HPI: 354.6398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B