1016 Rodeo Rd

Del Monte Forest, CA 93953

$1,075,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,610 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,637
• Tax + insurance: −$1,792
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,772
• Net cashflow: $-763/mo
• Annual: $-9,156/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $301,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.07M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-763 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $965k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $844k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $844k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#278 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Pacific Grove Unified (suburban): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #95 of 1,400 in CA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 530 units permitted in Monterey County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monterey County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 0.4% in Del Monte Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,438/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($143k/yr) (locally 51% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.