823 Walbridge Rd

Northwest Harborcreek, PA 16511

$200,000D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,764/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$381
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-428/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-428/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.8% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#25 in PA, #149 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Harbor Creek SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #53 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Klein El Sch (math 67% / reading 79%, grade A, #118 of 1,518 statewide, top 8%, 306 students, 43% FRL); Harbor Creek Junior Hs (math 33% / reading 64%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 388 students, 36% FRL); Harbor Creek Senior Hs (math 92%, 614 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.