2074 Mustang Ln

Arcata, CA 95521

$156,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $147/mo
• Annual: $1,769/yr
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $43,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $156k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major: bathroom cabinets — dated and worn
• Major: interior walls — floral wallpaper and paneling