2074 Mustang Ln · Arcata, CA 95521

$156,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1983 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained double wide located in Lazy J Ranch Park across from duck pond. Clean and spacious 2 bedrm/ 2 bath with built in china cabinet. comes with refridge and stove; has shed; Carport with covered awning; Vaulted ceilings; Handicap ramp. Newer roof; Laminate, Carpet, Windows, screens; window coverings and paint.

Key facts

• Marsh views
• Duck pond
• Formal dining room

Tags

• WALKING TRAILS
• DUCK POND
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• MARSH VIEWS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Natural gas connected/available; Phone available
• Home design: Residential single-family residence; Located in a mobile home park (Lazy J Ranch); Mobile home make: Skyline; Zoned for multi-family
• Construction: Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Outbuilding; Accessible entrance; Has a view; Level lot; Concrete and paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $156k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,320 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,184
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $45,432
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95521

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$195 /mo · $2,340/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $156,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $156,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $156,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $156,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $156,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $156,000 Active
19. 2018-07-16
    soldstatus $68,000 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Well maintained double wide located in Lazy J Ranch Park across from duck pond. Clean and spacious 2 bedrm/ 2 bath with built in china cabinet. comes with refridge and stove; has shed; Carport with covered awning; Vaulted ceilings; Handicap ramp. Newer roof; Laminate, Carpet, Windows, screens; window coverings and paint.

20. 2018-06-10
    listed $72,500 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Well maintained double wide located in Lazy J Ranch Park across from duck pond. Clean and spacious 2 bedrm/ 2 bath with built in china cabinet. comes with refridge and stove; has shed; Carport with covered awning; Vaulted ceilings; Handicap ramp. Newer roof; Laminate, Carpet, Windows, screens; window coverings and paint.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥72°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$2,340
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This doublewide mobile home requires moderate renovations to update dated cabinets and walls, but is otherwise in good condition with a good exterior and yard. Updates to the kitchen and bathroom would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major bathroom cabinets — dated and worn
• Major interior walls — floral wallpaper and paneling

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen
• Resale update bathroom cabinets — modernizing bathroom
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · floral wallpaper and paneling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom cabinets — modernizing bathroom ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacific Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,146
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #7442
• State rank: #560 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arcata

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #9258

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcata, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 21,980
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,980
• Household income: $53,114
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -373.51%
• Current HPI: 208.5938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.08%
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+115.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $156,000 HAR
• 2018-07-16 Sold (MLS) $68,000 HAR
• 2018-06-10 Listed $72,500 HAR