9533 Berry Rd

Lake Timberline, MO 63628

$99,900C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $300/mo
• Annual: $3,602/yr
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.88%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Primary (750 students, 56% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.