9533 Berry Rd · Lake Timberline, MO 63628

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · Other public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 3.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming 1,401 sq. ft. ranch-style home in Bonne Terre, featuring three well-appointed bedrooms and a functional bathroom. The inviting living room serves as the heart of the home, centered around a cozy fireplace perfect for relaxation. Additional highlights include a full basement providing ample storage or potential for future customization, a convenient one-car carport, and a spacious lot that offers plenty of room for outdoor activities. This property combines practical living spaces with a peaceful setting, making it an excellent opportunity for anyone seeking a comfortable and versatile residence.

Key facts

• Ranch-style home
• Full basement
• Spacious lot

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• COZY FIREPLACE
• FULL BASEMENT
• ONE-CAR CARPORT
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Primary (750 students, 56% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.88%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,909
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $27,063
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63628

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $723/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$21/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$723
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $3,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North St. Francois County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905430
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,156
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #214 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake Timberline

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,864

Population outlook (St. Francois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,683 people
• By 2030: 69,574 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 70,665 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 70,708 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 67,917 · -1.1%
• By 2100: 56,563 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.8% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.15%
• Current HPI: 234.0946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $723 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.