17082 S County Circle Dr

Bernie, MO 63822

$91,200B

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · Built 2006 · Other · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$478
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $278/mo
• Annual: $3,332/yr
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.66%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $25,536

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $91k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($631 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bernie R-XIII (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #34 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bernie Elem. (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 280 students, 66% FRL); Bernie High (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 228 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.