17082 S County Circle Dr · Bernie, MO 63822

$91,200

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2006 0.90 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3 Bedroom | 2 Bath home featuring an open floor plan, spacious living areas, and a nice-sized yard perfect for entertaining, kids, or pets! The detached shop offers plenty of room for hobbies, storage, or a workspace. This property has the space and functionality you’ve been looking for. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours! Seller Pays: Buyer uses Premium Title Services, the seller’s preferred title partner and closing agent. This lets the buyer bypass the title insurance fee, related search costs and reduced escrow/ settlement fees, since the seller will cover those charges. The average charges for title search and insurance is $1225 & escrow/ settlem

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Storage
• Nice sized yard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• NICE SIZED YARD
• DETACHED SHOP
• ROOM FOR HOBBIES
• STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership; Accessible approach with ramp and customized wheelchair accessibility; Auction listing (contact agent); Call listing agent for other equipment

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric service with 220 volts; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Exterior storage; Level lot; Asphalt road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $91k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bernie R-XIII (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #34 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bernie Elem. (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 280 students, 66% FRL); Bernie High (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 228 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($631 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,464 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.66%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $32,275
• Equity at exit: $44,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $85,826
• Equity at exit: $72,227

Cash invested: $25,536 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63822

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$478
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $543/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $91,200

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,800
• Closing costs: $2,736
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $91,200 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $91,200 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $91,200 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $91,200 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $91,200 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $91,200 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $91,200 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $91,200 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $91,200 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $91,200 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $96,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $96,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $96,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $96,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $96,000 Active 802-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$28/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,109
• − Property taxes: −$543
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$2,653
• Taxable income: $1,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $2,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bernie R-XIII
• NCES district ID: 2904950
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3055
• State rank: #34 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bernie

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #9377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,562

Population outlook (Stoddard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,096 people
• By 2030: 28,478 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 27,073 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 25,512 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 21,740 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 17,841 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stoddard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -39.8pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.0 2016: R+69.3 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+39.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 143.7346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $91,200 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $96,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $543 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.