315 State Route 17b Sales #4

Monticello, NY 12701

$181,618C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 918 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,056/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$952
• Tax + insurance: −$303
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $369/mo
• Annual: $4,432/yr
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.72%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $50,853

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $182k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• It's been on market 918 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.4% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 918 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.