315 State Route 17b Sales #4 · Monticello, NY 12701

$181,618

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured · 918 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $122/sqft · 45% above area Est $125k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a tour of this brand new home! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home includes an eat-in kitchen with an island and appliances, a garden tub and so much more. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Built 2023
• Listed 918 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $182k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.4% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 918 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,823 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 918 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.72%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,371
• List price: $181,618
• Delta: 44.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Gardenia Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	4mo	$135,000	$96	72
2 Forsythia Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	6mo	$110,000	$70	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $122,469
• Equity at exit: $163,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $342,215
• Equity at exit: $352,844

Cash invested: $50,853 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$952
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$227 /mo · $2,724/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,589

Max offer price $181,618

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,404
• Closing costs: $5,449
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $181,618 Active 918 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $181,618 Active 917 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $181,618 Active 916 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $181,618 Active 915 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $181,618 Active 913 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $181,618 Active 910 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $181,618 Active 909 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $181,618 Active 908 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $181,618 Active 907 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $181,618 Active 903 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $181,618 Active 902 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $181,618 Active 901 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $181,618 Active 900 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $181,618 Active 899 DOM
15. 2023-12-13
    listed $181,618 Active 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Take a tour of this brand new home! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home includes an eat-in kitchen with an island and appliances, a garden tub and so much more. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,724
• − Insurance: −$908
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$5,283
• Taxable income: $1,638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$393
• After-tax cash flow: $4,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with good condition and fresh updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #17510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 12,197
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-12-13 Listed $181,618 Zillow