44 Drummond Ave

Red Bank, NJ 07701

$399,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$722
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-34/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-34/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (10.8% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $356k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#45 in NJ, #1,151 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Red Bank Regional School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #143 of 472 in NJ (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Bank Primary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,124 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 591 students, 78% FRL); Red Bank Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #387 of 431 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 79% FRL); Red Bank Regional High School (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #177 of 399 statewide, top 45%, 1,195 students, 29% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Red Bank Regional School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Red Bank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.