44 Drummond Ave · Red Bank, NJ 07701

$399,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1935 4,356 sqft lot Est $667k · 40% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offer accepted. Bring this 2 possible 3-bedroom home with good bones' back to its original beauty. The Investor possibilities are inside. .. Located in much sought-after area of historic Red Bank NJ. Located near Count Basie & other historic recreation & entertainment areas, public transportation & Garden State parkway & much more. ..

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-34/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Red Bank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#45 in NJ, #1,151 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Red Bank Regional School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #143 of 472 in NJ (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Bank Primary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,124 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 591 students, 78% FRL); Red Bank Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #387 of 431 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 79% FRL); Red Bank Regional High School (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #177 of 399 statewide, top 45%, 1,195 students, 29% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Red Bank Regional School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $355,949 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $666,606
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 E Westside Ave	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,411 (-2%)	2mo	$650,000	$461	88
44 W Sunset Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,368 (-5%)	6mo	$460,000	$336	67
37 Cherry St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,412 (-2%)	3mo	$515,000	$365	67
55 Spruce Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,473 (+2%)	6mo	$628,000	$426	66
68 W Sunset Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,450 (+0%)	12mo	$805,000	$555	64
39 E Sunset Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,301 (-10%)	5mo	$425,000	$327	63
52 Rumson Pl	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	3mo	$925,000	$622	60
84 W Sunset Ave	0.34mi	2/1.5	1,242 (-14%)	3mo	$527,350	$425	56
145 River St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (-5%)	10mo	$700,000	$507	53
41 Patterson Ct	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,254 (-13%)	12mo	$585,000	$467	47
56 Waverly Pl	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,314 (-9%)	12mo	$870,000	$662	42
208 E Bergen Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (+14%)	9mo	$746,000	$452	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-51,963
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $11,199
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07701

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,674/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,563

Max offer price $398,502

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $110	+0% $-3	+5% $-116	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-143	+0% $-3	+5% $138	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $99	base $-3	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 E Westside Ave Red Bank, NJ	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,650	$2.61	17d	1	0.20mi
147 Bridge Ave Unit B Red Bank, NJ	2.0	1.0	1660	$2,975	$1.79	19d	1	0.45mi
116 Chestnut St Red Bank, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$5,374	$5.05	0d	2	0.56mi
170 Monmouth St Red Bank, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$4,195	$3.94	0d	1	0.69mi
8 E Front St Unit 204 Red Bank, NJ	2.0	1.0	1400	$3,600	$2.57	0d	1	1.00mi
96-98 Wallace St Red Bank, NJ	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,550	$1.70	7d	1	1.01mi
155 Manor Dr Red Bank, NJ	2.0	1.0	1168	$2,900	$2.48	12d	1	1.03mi
321 Spring St #9 Red Bank, NJ	2.0	2.5	1125	$3,600	$3.20	0d	1	1.06mi
20 Tower Hill Dr #1009 Red Bank, NJ	1.0	1.5	1136	$3,100	$2.73	0d	1	1.25mi
96 Lake Shore Dr Red Bank, NJ	3.0	2.0	1382	$5,500	$3.98	4d	1	1.38mi
2 Joyce Ct Tinton Falls, NJ	2.0	2.5	1514	$3,650	$2.41	0d	1	1.43mi
5B Auburn Ct Red Bank, NJ	2.0	2.0	1142	$3,300	$2.89	26d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-17
   price $399,000
3. 2025-12-02
   status Active
4. 2025-06-30
   historical $450,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,674 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,305 · $692/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,631/yr (+$136/mo · 24.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$6,674
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,417
• − Management: −$3,417
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$6,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,619
• After-tax cash flow: $1,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Bank Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3413750
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $141,699
• Composite: 44.45/100
• National rank: #2805
• State rank: #143 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Red Bank

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #1151

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Bank, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 24,376
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,376
• Household income: $112,143
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.28%
• Current HPI: 350.124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $399,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-06-30 Coming Soon $450,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,674 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.