40 Luther Ln

Bolivar, TN 38008

$69,995B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $561/mo
• Annual: $6,728/yr
• Cap rate: 15.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.33%
• DSCR: 2.53
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $19,599

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#397 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hardeman County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #133 of 139 in TN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bolivar Elementary (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #745 of 952 statewide, top 79%, 756 students, 0% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 697 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Hardeman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardeman County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.