40 Luther Ln · Bolivar, TN 38008

$69,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2003 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a spacious 0.7-acre lot. Enjoy a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and a durable metal roof. The large yard offers room to grow, garden, or relax. A solid property with great potential, ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large yard
• Spacious lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Windows listed as energy-efficient feature

Exterior

• Parking: No covered spaces reported; No total parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built/existing structure
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Approximately 0.7-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 15 x 13, 12 x 11, and 11 x 10
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath includes a double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Has heating and cooling systems

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#397 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hardeman County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #133 of 139 in TN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bolivar Elementary (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #745 of 952 statewide, top 79%, 756 students, 0% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 697 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Hardeman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardeman County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,945 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.33%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $24,342
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $67,085
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38008

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $528

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $69,995 Active 257-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$243/yr (+$20/mo · 95.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,918
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $5,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardeman County Schools
• NCES district ID: 4701650
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,190
• Composite: 10.9/100
• National rank: #9754
• State rank: #133 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bolivar

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #24758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,351
• Population (ZIP): 9,351

Population outlook (Hardeman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,629 people
• By 2030: 22,413 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,910 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 17,692 · -25.1%
• By 2075: 13,532 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 10,178 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 35% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardeman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.5% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+8.0 2012: D+5.9 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.15%
• Current HPI: 241.1615
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $69,995 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $254 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.