4856 Kings Peak Rd NE

Rio Rancho, NM 87144

$340,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,653 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-410/mo
• Annual: $-4,921/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (26.7% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $249k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 1315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.