3985 Nellie Jones Rd

Bracey, VA 23950

$459,900D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,644/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-1,410/mo
• Annual: $-16,914/yr
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.14%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $128,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (54.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (64.2% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $296k; list at $460k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.