3985 Nellie Jones Rd · Bracey, VA 23950

$459,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2012 2.30 ac lot $180/sqft · 19% below area Est $565k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful and well maintained home is a buyers dream! Gorgeous home on 2.3 acres within 15 minutes of South Hill or Bracey/I85. This immaculate, well built, custom home is a country living dream. The large kitchen features granite counter tops, beautiful hardwood floors, walk-in pantry, island and space for a dining room table. The large premier bedroom has a spacious premier bathroom and walk-in closet. Large laundry room with custom built cabinetry. Also, there are 2 more bedrooms and 3 more bathrooms. On the outside, you will find a spacious front porch and rear deck for grilling and entertaining. Extras include room for an office, toy room, top of the line heat/smoke detectors, gas tankless water heater, foam insulated walls/attic/crawl space. It has an attached single carport, concrete driveway and large backyard for playing games and growing a garden.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Culinary kitchen
• Gas stove

Tags

• CULINARY KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• DOUBLE OVEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• NEW AC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Concrete parking surface; Carport
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Residential/Vacation subtype; Updated/Remodeled condition; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Rear porch; Storage structure; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Gas oven and range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; In-law floorplan; Window coverings and treatments; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (54.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (64.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $296k; list at $460k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,416 (64.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.14%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 23.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $564,810
• List price: $459,900
• Delta: -18.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-11,805
• Equity at exit: $231,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $56,362
• Equity at exit: $376,285

Cash invested: $128,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23950

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-1,410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,428

Max offer price $210,900

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,149	-5% $-1,279	+0% $-1,410	+5% $-1,540	+10% $-1,670
Rent	-10% $-1,539	-5% $-1,474	+0% $-1,410	+5% $-1,345	+10% $-1,280
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,178	-0.5pp $-1,293	base $-1,410	+0.5pp $-1,529	+1.0pp $-1,650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,975
• Closing costs: $13,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $459,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $459,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $459,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $470,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $470,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $470,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $470,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $475,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $475,000 1331-char remark
19. 2026-05-01
    listed $495,000 Active 1331-char remark
20. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus $296,000
21. 2020-12-10
    soldstatus $296,000 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    This beautiful and well maintained home is a buyers dream! Gorgeous home on 2.3 acres within 15 minutes of South Hill or Bracey/I85. This immaculate, well built, custom home is a country living dream. The large kitchen features granite counter tops, beautiful hardwood floors, walk-in pantry, island and space for a dining room table. The large premier bedroom has a spacious premier bathroom and walk-in closet. Large laundry room with custom built cabinetry. Also, there are 2 more bedrooms and 3 more bathrooms. On the outside, you will find a spacious front porch and rear deck for grilling and entertaining. Extras include room for an office, toy room, top of the line heat/smoke detectors, gas tankless water heater, foam insulated walls/attic/crawl space. It has an attached single carport, concrete driveway and large backyard for playing games and growing a garden.

22. 2020-09-09
    listed $335,000 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    This beautiful and well maintained home is a buyers dream! Gorgeous home on 2.3 acres within 15 minutes of South Hill or Bracey/I85. This immaculate, well built, custom home is a country living dream. The large kitchen features granite counter tops, beautiful hardwood floors, walk-in pantry, island and space for a dining room table. The large premier bedroom has a spacious premier bathroom and walk-in closet. Large laundry room with custom built cabinetry. Also, there are 2 more bedrooms and 3 more bathrooms. On the outside, you will find a spacious front porch and rear deck for grilling and entertaining. Extras include room for an office, toy room, top of the line heat/smoke detectors, gas tankless water heater, foam insulated walls/attic/crawl space. It has an attached single carport, concrete driveway and large backyard for playing games and growing a garden.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,771 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,511/yr (+$209/mo · 199.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,762
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$13,379
• Taxable loss: −$26,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 3,732

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Current HPI: 220.1067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $459,900 RVLG
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $470,000 RVLG
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $475,000 RVLG
• 2026-05-01 Listed $495,000 RVLG
• 2020-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $296,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) $296,000 RVLG
• 2020-09-09 Listed $335,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,260 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.