315 E Bexar St

Crystal City, TX 78839

$100,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $403/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($403/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#910 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Crystal City ISD (town): math 10% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #813 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zavala El (math 12% / reading 15%, grade F, #4,138 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 358 students, 92% FRL); Sterling H Fly Jr H S (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 371 students, 84% FRL); Crystal City H S (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,460 of 1,632 statewide, top 91%, 551 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Zavala County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Zavala County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.