18650 N Thompson Peak Pkwy #2074

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$740,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · Built 2009 · Condo · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,881
• Tax + insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$724
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-2,761/mo
• Annual: $-33,134/yr
• Cap rate: 1.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.99%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $207,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $740k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (65.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (58.9% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($696k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (65.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?