20322 Thicket Rd

Milton, DE 19968

$319,786D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,677
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,009/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $89,540

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (35.8% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#7 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cape Henlopen School District (town): math 42% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 26 in DE (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 391 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $320k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.2% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.