882 Caldwell Rd

Gay, GA 30218

$200,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 2006 · Other · Under Contract · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,471/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-108/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-108/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#201 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $200k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.