882 Caldwell Rd · Gay, GA 30218

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Other · 82 Days on market

Built 2006 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a peaceful country living on 5 beautiful acres. This property features a well-maintained manufactured home set back from the road for privacy and quiet enjoyment. The land offers a mix of open space and natural surroundings-perfect for a small farm, animals, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time homestead, this property provides the space, freedom, and rural lifestyle you've been searching for.

Key facts

• Mix of open space
• Small farm
• 5 beautiful acres

Tags

• 5 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• SET BACK FROM THE ROAD
• MIX OF OPEN SPACE
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• SMALL FARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-108/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#201 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $200k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,125 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,411
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -51.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $41,584
• Equity at exit: $109,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $127,922
• Equity at exit: $185,286

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30218

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $198,404

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $48	+0% $-9	+5% $-66	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-67	+0% $-9	+5% $49	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $42	base $-9	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Under Contract 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Discover a peaceful country living on 5 beautiful acres. This property features a well-maintained manufactured home set back from the road for privacy and quiet enjoyment. The land offers a mix of open space and natural surroundings-perfect for a small farm, animals, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time homestead, this property provides the space, freedom, and rural lifestyle you've been searching for.

2. 2026-03-23
   status Back On Market 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Discover a peaceful country living on 5 beautiful acres. This property features a well-maintained manufactured home set back from the road for privacy and quiet enjoyment. The land offers a mix of open space and natural surroundings-perfect for a small farm, animals, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time homestead, this property provides the space, freedom, and rural lifestyle you've been searching for.

3. 2026-03-22
   status Under Contract 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Discover a peaceful country living on 5 beautiful acres. This property features a well-maintained manufactured home set back from the road for privacy and quiet enjoyment. The land offers a mix of open space and natural surroundings-perfect for a small farm, animals, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time homestead, this property provides the space, freedom, and rural lifestyle you've been searching for.

4. 2026-03-22
   historical Active Under Contract 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Discover a peaceful country living on 5 beautiful acres. This property features a well-maintained manufactured home set back from the road for privacy and quiet enjoyment. The land offers a mix of open space and natural surroundings-perfect for a small farm, animals, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time homestead, this property provides the space, freedom, and rural lifestyle you've been searching for.

5. 2026-01-13
   historical
6. 2026-01-06
   listed $200,000 New 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Discover a peaceful country living on 5 beautiful acres. This property features a well-maintained manufactured home set back from the road for privacy and quiet enjoyment. The land offers a mix of open space and natural surroundings-perfect for a small farm, animals, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time homestead, this property provides the space, freedom, and rural lifestyle you've been searching for.

7. 2025-12-27
   price $200,000
8. 2025-11-17
   listed $250,000 New
9. 2004-08-11
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,370/yr (+$114/mo · 291.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$879
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #12302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,721

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 9% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.66%
• Current HPI: 445.3774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-22 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $200,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $200,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.