6978 Glen Haven Rd

Homer, NY 13077

$170,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,110/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#229 in NY, #3,609 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Homer Central School District (town): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #306 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Homer Elementary School (491 students, 37% FRL); Homer Junior High School (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 410 students, 46% FRL); Homer Senior High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 579 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Homer Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $170k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Homer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.