6978 Glen Haven Rd · Homer, NY 13077

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a peaceful country setting within the desirable Homer central school district this three bedroom, two bath, double wide sits on 2.38 private acres offering the perfect blend of seclusion and convenience located just 2 miles from beautiful Skaneateles Lake and only a short 12 minute drive to the village of Homer, this property provides easy access to local shops, dining, and recreation while still enjoying the tranquility of rural living. The home features a spacious layout with plenty of potential to make it your own. Outside you & acirc; & euro; & trade; ll find a large detached garage, ideal for vehicles, storage hobbies, or workshop space along with a small shed fo

Key facts

• Private acres
• Open space
• Surrounded by nature

Tags

• HOMER CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT
• PRIVATE ACRES
• LARGE DETACHED GARAGE
• SMALL SHED
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Homer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#229 in NY, #3,609 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Homer Central School District (town): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #306 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Homer Elementary School (491 students, 37% FRL); Homer Junior High School (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 410 students, 46% FRL); Homer Senior High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 579 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Homer Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $170k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,302 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $46,706
• Equity at exit: $116,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $144,402
• Equity at exit: $219,297

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13077

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,438/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $138,938

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-128	+0% $-176	+5% $-224	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-228	+0% $-176	+5% $-124	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-133	base $-176	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $170,000 Active
16. 1994-06-13
    soldstatus $50,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,438 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,655 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$218/yr (+$18/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,438
• − Insurance: −$1,516
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$5,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,221
• After-tax cash flow: $-889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Homer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614640
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,122
• Composite: 47.03/100
• National rank: #2342
• State rank: #306 of 590 in NY

Livability — Homer

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #3609

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,567

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.86%
• Current HPI: 298.7707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+236.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $170,000 FSBO.com
• 1994-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,438 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.