9874 Golf Club Rd #82

Stayton, OR 97383

$123,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $890/mo
• Annual: $10,683/yr
• Cap rate: 14.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.02%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $34,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $890 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#134 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $123k implies a 475% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.2% in Stayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.