9874 Golf Club Rd #82 · Stayton, OR 97383

$123,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1984 $95/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in all ages park! 3 bed, 2 bath home in a quiet community with only a short commute to Salem! Low space rent with utilities (w/s/g). Featuring a new roof, fresh interior & exterior paint, new flooring, updated lighting, and refreshed kitchen with appliances included. (Self-cleaning oven, dishwasher and a NEW stainless steel frig) Laundry room with washer and dryer is also a plus. The open floor plan with spacious living area and large fenced backyard is perfect for pets or kids. You'll also find a rare gated and locked parking area to store your RV or an extra car or two! Seller offering buyer incentive: One-month FREE space rent with accepted offer.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Fresh interior paint
• Updated lighting

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• REFRESHED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $890 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.2% in Stayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#134 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $123k implies a 475% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $115,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.02%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,000
• List price: $123,000
• Delta: -71.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9874 Golf Club Rd SE #26	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	18mo	$123,500	$107	66
9874 Golf Club Rd	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-11%)	18mo	$123,500	$107	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $36,728
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $104,834
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97383

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $890

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1240 Western Ave Stayton, OR	3.0	1.5	1482	$2,450	$1.65	43d	1	0.57mi
795 Rabbit Run St Unit 795 Stayton, OR	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,250	$1.27	13d	1	0.64mi
1282 N 3rd Ave Unit 1282 Stayton, OR	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,350	$1.76	43d	1	1.25mi
683 N First Ave Unit 685 Stayton, OR	2.0	1.0	907	$1,785	$1.97	23d	1	1.31mi
266 E Virginia St Unit 270 Stayton, OR	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,895	$1.58	43d	1	1.38mi
595 E Washington St Stayton, OR	4.0	1.0	1577	$1,850	$1.17	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $123,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $123,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $123,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $123,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $124,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Great opportunity in all ages park! 3 bed, 2 bath home in a quiet community with only a short commute to Salem! Low space rent with utilities (w/s/g). Featuring a new roof, fresh interior & exterior paint, new flooring, updated lighting, and refreshed kitchen with appliances included. (Self-cleaning oven, dishwasher and a NEW stainless steel frig) Laundry room with washer and dryer is also a plus. The open floor plan with spacious living area and large fenced backyard is perfect for pets or kids. You'll also find a rare gated and locked parking area to store your RV or an extra car or two! Seller offering buyer incentive: One-month FREE space rent with accepted offer.

16. 2026-01-16
    listed $125,000 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Great opportunity in all ages park! 3 bed, 2 bath home in a quiet community with only a short commute to Salem! Low space rent with utilities (w/s/g). Featuring a new roof, fresh interior & exterior paint, new flooring, updated lighting, and refreshed kitchen with appliances included. (Self-cleaning oven, dishwasher and a NEW stainless steel frig) Laundry room with washer and dryer is also a plus. The open floor plan with spacious living area and large fenced backyard is perfect for pets or kids. You'll also find a rare gated and locked parking area to store your RV or an extra car or two! Seller offering buyer incentive: One-month FREE space rent with accepted offer.

17. 1984-09-24
    soldstatus $21,394

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $488 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$706/yr (+$59/mo · 144.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $9,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,206
• After-tax cash flow: $8,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Santiam SD 29J
• NCES district ID: 4100020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $54,619
• Composite: 63.96/100
• National rank: #584
• State rank: #1 of 58 in OR

Livability — Stayton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #7696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stayton, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 10,310
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,310
• Household income: $78,853
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 418.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.35%
• Current HPI: 309.4013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+479.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $124,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $125,000 RMLS
• 1984-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $21,394 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $488 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.