9605 Morgan Rd

Clayville, NY 13322

$49,900B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · Built 1847 · SingleFamily · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $687/mo
• Annual: $8,241/yr
• Cap rate: 22.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.98%
• DSCR: 3.62
• 1% rule: 2.88%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#954 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sauquoit Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #314 of 590 in NY (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sauquoit Valley Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 347 students, 35% FRL); Sauquoit Valley Middle School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade D, #366 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 308 students, 41% FRL); Sauquoit Valley High School (math 87% / reading 70%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 268 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1847 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $39k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1847 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.