9605 Morgan Rd · Clayville, NY 13322

$49,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1847 0.34 ac lot $28/sqft · 82% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Private yard
• Quiet area

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• QUIET AREA
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#954 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sauquoit Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #314 of 590 in NY (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sauquoit Valley Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 347 students, 35% FRL); Sauquoit Valley Middle School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade D, #366 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 308 students, 41% FRL); Sauquoit Valley High School (math 87% / reading 70%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 268 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1847 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1847 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.98%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,507
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -81.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Catlin Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,722 (-3%)	2mo	$238,500	$139	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $54,825
• Equity at exit: $27,745

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.19×
• Total profit: $128,336
• Equity at exit: $47,450

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13322

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $715	-5% $701	+0% $687	+5% $673	+10% $658
Rent	-10% $573	-5% $630	+0% $687	+5% $744	+10% $800
Rate	-1.0pp $712	-0.5pp $699	base $687	+0.5pp $674	+1.0pp $661

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $49,900 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 207 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 206 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 205 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    price $59,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

20. 2026-04-16
    price $69,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

21. 2026-03-17
    price $79,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

22. 2026-02-06
    price $87,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

23. 2026-01-10
    price $94,900 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

24. 2025-11-06
    listed $99,900 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Discover the potential in this older home, ideally located in a quiet area just off State Route 8. Enjoy easy access to nearby shops, restaurants, and other local amenities. Featuring three bedrooms, one full bath, a formal dining room, and a living room, this home offers plenty of space to make your vision a reality. With TLC and creativity, you can restore its original character and charm. The property includes a private yard and is being sold as-is.

25. 2002-01-09
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,919
• After-tax cash flow: $6,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sauquoit Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600002
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,391
• Composite: 46.6/100
• National rank: #2418
• State rank: #314 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #954
• US rank: #18696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,059

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Current HPI: 314.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+53.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $69,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $87,900 CNYIS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $94,900 CNYIS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2002-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · -25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.