170 Meadow Ridge Rd

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72632

$850,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$689
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-3,977/mo
• Annual: $-47,729/yr
• Cap rate: 0.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.05%
• DSCR: 0.11
• 1% rule: 0.17%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-48k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (82.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (82.6% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (82.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $850k implies a 759% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 83% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.