170 Meadow Ridge Rd · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72632

$850,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2021 20 ac lot $434/sqft · 94% above area Est $890k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beaver Lake Cabin Retreat with Guest House & Workshop – 5 Minutes to Clifty Boat Ramp Escape to your own Ozark haven on approx. 20 wooded acres between Eureka Springs and Rogers. Just 5 minutes from the Clifty boat ramp, this property delivers year-round access to fishing, boating, hiking, and lake fun. The stunning log cabin offers an open living area with a cozy fireplace and a main-level primary suite with private bath. Upstairs, a spacious loft with its own bathroom makes an ideal bunkroom, game room, or second living space. Relax on the wrap-around porch overlooking peaceful wooded views—perfect for morning coffee or evening cookouts. A separate guest house adds excellent rental or in-law potential, while the 26’x30’ workshop/garage in the walk-out basement provides great storage or project space. With quick lake access, abundant wildlife, and easy proximity to downtown Eureka Springs, this is theultimate Beaver Lake lifestyle retreat.

Key facts

• 20 wooded acres
• Guest house
• Open living area

Tags

• BEAVER LAKE CABIN RETREAT
• GUEST HOUSE
• WORKSHOP
• 20 WOODED ACRES
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-48k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (82.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (82.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (82.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $850k implies a 759% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,375 (82.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 83% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.17% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.05%
• DSCR: 0.11
• GRM: 47.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $889,779
• List price: $850,000
• Delta: -4.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-347,579
• Equity at exit: $173,446

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.48×
• Total profit: $-590,999
• Equity at exit: $156,278

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72632

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 47.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,018/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-3,977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,515

Max offer price $147,375

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $850,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $850,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $850,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $850,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $850,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $850,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $850,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $850,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $850,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-01-31
    listed $850,000 Active 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    Beaver Lake Cabin Retreat with Guest House & Workshop – 5 Minutes to Clifty Boat Ramp Escape to your own Ozark haven on approx. 20 wooded acres between Eureka Springs and Rogers. Just 5 minutes from the Clifty boat ramp, this property delivers year-round access to fishing, boating, hiking, and lake fun. The stunning log cabin offers an open living area with a cozy fireplace and a main-level primary suite with private bath. Upstairs, a spacious loft with its own bathroom makes an ideal bunkroom, game room, or second living space. Relax on the wrap-around porch overlooking peaceful wooded views—perfect for morning coffee or evening cookouts. A separate guest house adds excellent rental or in-law potential, while the 26’x30’ workshop/garage in the walk-out basement provides great storage or project space. With quick lake access, abundant wildlife, and easy proximity to downtown Eureka Springs, this is theultimate Beaver Lake lifestyle retreat.

17. 2025-06-04
    price $995,000
18. 2004-04-14
    soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,018 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,440 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,422/yr (+$118/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$4,018
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$65,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,766
• After-tax cash flow: $-31,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eureka Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0505970
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,912
• Composite: 34.55/100
• National rank: #5171
• State rank: #61 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,550

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.79%
• Current HPI: 284.3048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+758.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $850,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $995,000 NWARMLS
• 2004-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+43.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,018 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.