204 Main Ave

Matherville, IL 61231

$44,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · Built 1910 · Townhouse · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $518/mo
• Annual: $6,218/yr
• Cap rate: 20.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.46%
• DSCR: 3.20
• 1% rule: 2.34%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,074 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools D-.
• Sherrard CUSD 200 (rural): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #240 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 157% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $45k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.