204 Main Ave · Matherville, IL 61231

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · Townhouse · 174 Days on market

Built 1910 0.98 ac lot $40/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on nearly an acre in Matherville, this 2-bed, 1-bath, 1.5-story home has been completely transformed from the studs up between 2024-2025. Updates include all-new walls, paint, ceilings, floors, heating, plumbing, windows, & doors. The main floor offers a bright living room, an eat-in kitchen, a full bathroom, & a bedroom. Upstairs features a 2nd bedroom & a walk-through office, den, or 3rd bedroom. The walk-out basement provides laundry hookups & additional storage. Per previous owners: the roof is newer, & the North side foundation was recently replaced. A detached 1-car garage adds convenience, & the large lot gives you space to expand, garden, or s

Key facts

• Nearly an acre
• Large lot
• Bright living room

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,074 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools D-.
• Sherrard CUSD 200 (rural): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #240 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 157% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $45k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.46%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,015
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -58.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $25,744
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $64,979
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61231

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,900 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,900 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,900 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    status Active
17. 2026-04-22
    historical
18. 2026-04-14
    price $49,000
19. 2026-02-27
    price $52,000
20. 2026-01-15
    status Active
21. 2026-01-14
    historical
22. 2026-01-08
    status Active
23. 2026-01-07
    historical
24. 2026-01-07
    status Active
25. 2026-01-07
    price $59,000
26. 2026-01-06
    historical
27. 2026-01-06
    historical
28. 2026-01-05
    status Active
29. 2026-01-05
    historical
30. 2025-10-22
    listed Active
31. 2025-07-09
    historical
32. 2025-07-09
    historical
33. 2025-06-19
    price
34. 2025-05-05
    listed Active
35. 2025-04-07
    soldstatus $29,000
36. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $12,000
37. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus $12,000
38. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus $12,000 Closed
39. 2025-01-14
    status Pending
40. 2024-10-17
    listed $17,500
41. 2024-10-17
    listed $17,500 Active
42. 2024-10-16
    historical
43. 2024-10-15
    historical
44. 2024-07-01
    price
45. 2024-04-15
    listed Active
46. 2021-08-06
    historical
47. 2021-08-06
    historical
48. 2018-04-11
    soldstatus $4,650
49. 2018-04-11
    soldstatus $4,650
50. 2018-02-09
    listed $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $5,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $4,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherrard CUSD 200
• NCES district ID: 1736180
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $60,194
• Composite: 26.77/100
• National rank: #7129
• State rank: #240 of 620 in IL

Livability — Matherville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1074
• US rank: #20507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Matherville, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,958

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,595 people
• By 2030: 13,846 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 12,335 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 10,893 · -25.4%
• By 2075: 8,238 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 6,111 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Danish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.4% · R 62.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.0pp toward R · 2008: 11.9pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+20.7 2012: D+7.4 2008: D+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.03%
• Current HPI: 140.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $49,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $52,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $59,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) $12,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) $12,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-14 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-17 Listed $17,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-17 Listed $17,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) $4,650 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) $4,650 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-09 Listed $8,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-09 Listed $8,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-30 Sold (MLS) $47,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-27 Listed $52,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,632 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.