19390 Collins Ave Unit 302A

Sunny Isles Beach, FL 33160

$399,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Active · 230 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$1,092
• HOA: −$1,195
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$903
• Net cashflow: $-984/mo
• Annual: $-11,805/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-984 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (35.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in FL, #434 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Norman S. Edelcup/Sunny Isles Beach K-8 (math 68% / reading 69%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 2,231 students, 30% FRL); Highland Oaks Middle School (math 28% / reading 51%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 774 students, 50% FRL); Alonzo & Tracy Mourning Senior High School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #244 of 667 statewide, top 37%, 1,597 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 64% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2335 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 0.2% in Sunny Isles Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,298/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.