3919 Peppertree Ln

Aspen Hill, MD 20906

$359,950D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,928 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Active · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,966/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $100,786

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#168 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A-, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Georgian Forest Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #550 of 860 statewide, top 66%, 519 students, 82% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #147 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 995 students, 72% FRL); John F. Kennedy High (math 15% / reading 48%, grade F, #152 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 1,827 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montgomery County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $201k; list at $360k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Aspen Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.