3919 Peppertree Ln · Aspen Hill, MD 20906

$359,950

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,928 sqft · Townhouse public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1984 1,537 sqft lot $187/sqft · 23% below area Est $470k · 23% under $110/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 3 bath town home on a quiet street in Silver Spring now available for sale. The property is occupied and no showings are allowed. Offers to purchase are based on the exterior only, and the buyers will be responsible for removing the current occupants. It is unlawful to approach or disturb the occupants, so please do not.

Key facts

• $110 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Aspen Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#168 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A-, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Georgian Forest Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #550 of 860 statewide, top 66%, 519 students, 82% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #147 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 995 students, 72% FRL); John F. Kennedy High (math 15% / reading 48%, grade F, #152 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 1,827 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montgomery County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $201k; list at $360k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,859 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $469,712
• List price: $359,950
• Delta: -23.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3714 Capulet Ter #4	0.37mi	4/3.5	1,982 (+3%)	5mo	$436,000	$220	74
3737 Capulet Ter #3737	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,017 (+5%)	2mo	$462,000	$229	73
3715 Capulet Ter Unit 3715-4	0.36mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,965 (+2%)	14mo	$445,000	$226	64
3133 Beaverwood Ln	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,118 (+10%)	2mo	$510,000	$241	63
3815 Gawayne Ter Unit 31-381	0.50mi	4/3.5	1,981 (+3%)	11mo	$475,000	$240	63
3830 Tremayne Ter	0.55mi	4/3.5	1,971 (+2%)	11mo	$449,000	$228	61
3731 Capulet Ter #3731	0.39mi	4/4.0	2,165 (+12%)	4mo	$470,000	$217	56
14628 Tynewick Ter Unit 2-14628	0.64mi	4/3.5	1,909 (-1%)	16mo	$455,000	$238	55
14530 Banquo Ter #14530	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,760 (-9%)	10mo	$435,000	$247	51
3121 Beaverwood Ln	0.42mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,142 (+11%)	14mo	$485,000	$226	45
14613 Tynewick Ter Unit 6-1461	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	1,650 (-14%)	5mo	$453,000	$275	38
14632 Tynewick Ter Unit 2-1463	0.65mi	4/3.5	1,650 (-14%)	14mo	$460,000	$279	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-81,718
• Equity at exit: $53,670

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-121,122
• Equity at exit: $31,122

Cash invested: $100,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20906

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,199/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,161

Max offer price $316,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-145	+0% $-247	+5% $-349	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-360	+0% $-247	+5% $-135	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-156	base $-247	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,988
• Closing costs: $10,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4108 Peppertree Ln #4108 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,500	$1.91	21d	1	0.09mi
4118 Peppertree Ln #4118 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,500	$1.92	23d	1	0.09mi
14120 Weeping Willow Dr Silver Spring, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,350	$2.28	0d	151	0.20mi
3810 Chesterwood Dr #3810 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	1350	$2,500	$1.85	5d	1	0.35mi
3934 Chesterwood Dr #3934 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	1690	$2,600	$1.54	45d	1	0.42mi
14301 Georgia Ave Silver Spring, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	935	$2,767	$2.96	1d	50	0.44mi
3822 Gawayne Ter Unit 32-382 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	1309	$3,400	$2.60	45d	1	0.47mi
3822 Gawayne Ter Unit 32-382 Silver Spring, MD	4.0	3.5	1309	$3,400	$2.60	20d	1	0.47mi
2943 Saint Helen Cir Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	2178	$3,500	$1.61	3d	1	0.56mi
14602 King Lear Ct Unit 12-146 Silver Spring, MD	4.0	3.5	1963	$3,250	$1.66	45d	1	0.59mi
3331 Hewitt Ave #204 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	45d	1	0.64mi
3331 Hewitt Ave #102 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	9d	1	0.64mi
3331 Hewitt Ave #104 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,368	$1.82	23d	1	0.64mi
3331 Hewitt Ave #202 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.64mi
3331 Hewitt Ave #003 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,472	$1.90	4d	1	0.64mi
3331 Hewitt Ave Unit 1 Silver Spring, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1175	$2,550	$2.17	18d	8	0.66mi
4107 Southend Rd Rockville, MD	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,700	$1.85	23d	1	0.68mi
14231 Clayton St Rockville, MD	5.0	3.5	2000	$3,099	$1.55	23d	1	0.72mi
3700 Ralph Rd Silver Spring, MD	4.0	2.0	1769	$3,650	$2.06	9d	1	0.86mi
13905 Parkland Dr Rockville, MD	4.0	2.5	1620	$3,650	$2.25	23d	1	0.91mi
15101 Glade Dr Unit 10-3G Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,550	$1.80	0d	1	1.02mi
13807 Eastland St Rockville, MD	4.0	3.0	1514	$3,950	$2.61	23d	1	1.06mi
4419 Renn St Rockville, MD	3.0	2.0	2044	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	1.07mi
13206 Holdridge Rd Silver Spring, MD	4.0	2.0	1749	$3,300	$1.89	26d	1	1.10mi
14426 Taos Ct Unit 5F Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,400	$1.75	16d	1	1.16mi
3330 N Leisure World Blvd Apt 128 Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	1530	$2,900	$1.90	26d	1	1.21mi
4301 Independence St #61 Rockville, MD	5.0	3.0	2150	$3,600	$1.67	0d	1	1.30mi
4301 Independence St #61 Rockville, MD	5.0	2.5	2150	$3,200	$1.49	16d	1	1.30mi
7 Valleyfield Ct Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	1656	$2,700	$1.63	45d	1	1.31mi
14104 Parker Farm Way Unit X Silver Spring, MD	4.0	3.5	2430	$3,199	$1.32	45d	1	1.34mi
15210 Elkridge Way Unit 91-3K Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,700	$2.01	1d	1	1.38mi
15101 Callohan Ct Silver Spring, MD	3.0	3.5	1628	$3,600	$2.21	45d	1	1.44mi
13208 Hathaway Dr Silver Spring, MD	4.0	2.5	1794	$3,300	$1.84	45d	1	1.47mi
2208 Wimbledon Cir Silver Spring, MD	3.0	2.5	1376	$2,995	$2.18	20d	1	1.48mi
14601 Melinda Ln Rockville, MD	4.0	2.5	2467	$4,300	$1.74	16d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,950 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,950 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,950 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,950 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,950 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $359,950 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-04-15
   listed $379,950 Active 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   4 bedroom 3 bath town home on a quiet street in Silver Spring now available for sale. The property is occupied and no showings are allowed. Offers to purchase are based on the exterior only, and the buyers will be responsible for removing the current occupants. It is unlawful to approach or disturb the occupants, so please do not.

8. 2002-06-06
   soldstatus $201,000
9. 2002-05-29
   soldstatus $201,000 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   SUPER CLEAN, NEW BERBER CARPET, FRESH PAINT, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, SUNKEN LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM, RECESSED LIGHTING, DECK, ASSIGNED PARKING, VERY QUIET COMMUNITY, LARGE BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS EACH WITH PRIVATE BATH AND AMPLE CLOSETS, THIS ONE REALLY SHINES, CALL NO ANSWER OK TO GO

10. 2002-03-29
    historical 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    SUPER CLEAN, NEW BERBER CARPET, FRESH PAINT, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, SUNKEN LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM, RECESSED LIGHTING, DECK, ASSIGNED PARKING, VERY QUIET COMMUNITY, LARGE BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS EACH WITH PRIVATE BATH AND AMPLE CLOSETS, THIS ONE REALLY SHINES, CALL NO ANSWER OK TO GO

11. 2002-03-27
    listed $199,990 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    SUPER CLEAN, NEW BERBER CARPET, FRESH PAINT, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, SUNKEN LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM, RECESSED LIGHTING, DECK, ASSIGNED PARKING, VERY QUIET COMMUNITY, LARGE BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS EACH WITH PRIVATE BATH AND AMPLE CLOSETS, THIS ONE REALLY SHINES, CALL NO ANSWER OK TO GO

12. 1989-07-19
    soldstatus $144,000
13. 1988-04-28
    soldstatus $116,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,199 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,199 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,163
• − Property taxes: −$4,199
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,735
• − Management: −$2,735
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$10,471
• Taxable loss: −$9,239
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,217
• After-tax cash flow: $-748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Aspen Hill

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #7559

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen Hill, MD
• County: Montgomery County · 961,106 people
• City population: 102,654
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 70,595
• Household income: $97,521
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2967.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% White 26% Black 25% Asian 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -366.58%
• Current HPI: 256.9059
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.24%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+227.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $379,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-29 Sold (MLS) $201,000 MRIS
• 2002-03-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-03-27 Listed $199,990 MRIS
• 1989-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,199 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.