280 Birch St E

Motley, MN 56466

$139,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-64/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#393 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Staples-Motley School District (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #238 of 301 in MN (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 179 units permitted in Morrison County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morrison County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $140k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.