280 Birch St E · Motley, MN 56466

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1995 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely maintained manufactured 2 BR, 2 BA home. 28x32 detached garage and a lien on back side for additional storage. 10 x 16 storage shed. All appliances included. Large wooded corner lot. This home is ready for a quick easy move.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#393 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Staples-Motley School District (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #238 of 301 in MN (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 179 units permitted in Morrison County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morrison County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $140k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,117 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-23,083
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-20,840
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56466

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $138,961

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-01
   status Active
4. 2026-03-21
   listed $139,900 Active
5. 2026-03-18
   historical $139,900
6. 2015-08-25
   historical
7. 2015-07-29
   listed $53,500 Active
8. 2011-07-14
   soldstatus $47,500 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Nicely maintained manufactured 2 BR, 2 BA home. 28x32 detached garage and a lien on back side for additional storage. 10 x 16 storage shed. All appliances included. Large wooded corner lot. This home is ready for a quick easy move.

9. 2011-07-01
   soldstatus $47,500
10. 2011-06-29
    historical 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Nicely maintained manufactured 2 BR, 2 BA home. 28x32 detached garage and a lien on back side for additional storage. 10 x 16 storage shed. All appliances included. Large wooded corner lot. This home is ready for a quick easy move.

11. 2011-01-18
    listed $54,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Nicely maintained manufactured 2 BR, 2 BA home. 28x32 detached garage and a lien on back side for additional storage. 10 x 16 storage shed. All appliances included. Large wooded corner lot. This home is ready for a quick easy move.

12. 2008-08-01
    soldstatus $83,000
13. 2008-08-01
    soldstatus $83,000
14. 2008-05-29
    historical
15. 2007-12-29
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$615/yr (+$51/mo · 183.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$990
• − Management: −$990
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Staples-Motley School District
• NCES district ID: 2733900
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,979
• Composite: 32.07/100
• National rank: #5816
• State rank: #238 of 301 in MN

Livability — Motley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #9317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Motley, MN
• Population (ZIP): 3,126

Population outlook (Morrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,479 people
• By 2030: 30,414 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,935 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 25,229 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 20,093 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 16,173 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 4% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.0) · D 21.2% · R 77.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -56.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.0 2020: R+53.5 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.77%
• Current HPI: 223.5756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+64.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Coming Soon $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-29 Listed $53,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-14 Sold (MLS) $47,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2011-06-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-18 Listed $54,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-01 Sold (MLS) $83,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-29 Listed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.