2351 Lyon Rd

Marion, NY 14522

$200,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Built 1875 · Other · Pending · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,583/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-275/mo
• Annual: $-3,296/yr
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#835 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newark Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #527 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norman R Kelley Intermediate School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,516 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 387 students, 62% FRL); Newark Middle School (math 10% / reading 38%, grade F, #640 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 445 students, 59% FRL); Newark Senior High School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 602 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $200k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.