2351 Lyon Rd · Marion, NY 14522

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Other public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1875 3.40 ac lot $131/sqft · at area comps

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So many possibilities with this unique property! The main home is very livable, featuring three spacious bedrooms upstairs and a first-floor primary bedroom. Some minor updates are needed, along with improvements to the outbuildings. A second structure was started as a three-unit apartment build-out. With the right vision, this property offers strong potential for restoration and future income generation.

Key facts

• 3.4 acre lot
• Built 1875
• Listed 146 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#835 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newark Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #527 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norman R Kelley Intermediate School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,516 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 387 students, 62% FRL); Newark Middle School (math 10% / reading 38%, grade F, #640 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 445 students, 59% FRL); Newark Senior High School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 602 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $200k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $151,478 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,751
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -55.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-49,791
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-65,429
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14522

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,716/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $151,478

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-218	+0% $-275	+5% $-331	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-337	+0% $-275	+5% $-212	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-224	base $-275	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $200,000 Pending 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   status Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   So many possibilities with this unique property! The main home is very livable, featuring three spacious bedrooms upstairs and a first-floor primary bedroom. Some minor updates are needed, along with improvements to the outbuildings. A second structure was started as a three-unit apartment build-out. With the right vision, this property offers strong potential for restoration and future income generation.

5. 2026-05-06
   historical 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   So many possibilities with this unique property! The main home is very livable, featuring three spacious bedrooms upstairs and a first-floor primary bedroom. Some minor updates are needed, along with improvements to the outbuildings. A second structure was started as a three-unit apartment build-out. With the right vision, this property offers strong potential for restoration and future income generation.

6. 2026-02-23
   price $200,000 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   So many possibilities with this unique property! The main home is very livable, featuring three spacious bedrooms upstairs and a first-floor primary bedroom. Some minor updates are needed, along with improvements to the outbuildings. A second structure was started as a three-unit apartment build-out. With the right vision, this property offers strong potential for restoration and future income generation.

7. 2026-02-04
   price $225,000 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   So many possibilities with this unique property! The main home is very livable, featuring three spacious bedrooms upstairs and a first-floor primary bedroom. Some minor updates are needed, along with improvements to the outbuildings. A second structure was started as a three-unit apartment build-out. With the right vision, this property offers strong potential for restoration and future income generation.

8. 2026-01-04
   listed $299,900 Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   So many possibilities with this unique property! The main home is very livable, featuring three spacious bedrooms upstairs and a first-floor primary bedroom. Some minor updates are needed, along with improvements to the outbuildings. A second structure was started as a three-unit apartment build-out. With the right vision, this property offers strong potential for restoration and future income generation.

9. 2010-10-15
   soldstatus $91,000
10. 2007-08-22
    soldstatus $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,716 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,716 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,716
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,628
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newark Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620640
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $44,966
• Composite: 33.55/100
• National rank: #5428
• State rank: #527 of 590 in NY

Livability — Marion

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #835
• US rank: #16252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,230

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.23%
• Current HPI: 217.7254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+123.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $200,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $225,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2010-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,716 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.