612 Spruce St

Farmington, MN 55024

$289,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · Built 1913 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-266/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-266/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#203 in MN, #4,269 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Farmington Elementary (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #595 of 857 statewide, top 70%, 565 students, 41% FRL); Robert Boeckman Middle School (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #103 of 258 statewide, top 40%, 878 students, 25% FRL); Farmington High School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #210 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 2,201 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 12% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $173k; list at $290k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Farmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.