1259-1261 Market St

Sunbury, PA 17801

$180,000C+

6 bd · 0.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · Built 1955 · MultiFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $1,052/mo
• Annual: $12,622/yr
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.04%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $526/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#374 in PA, #3,298 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shikellamy SD (town): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #362 of 539 in PA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 7.1% in Sunbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.