1143 Oxford Mills Ln

Sugar Land, TX 77479

$354,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax + insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$93
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $358/mo
• Annual: $4,296/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $99,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $355k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brazos Bend El (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 739 students, 44% FRL); Sartartia Middle (math 69% / reading 71%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,440 students, 24% FRL); William B Travis H S (math 44% / reading 73%, grade C, #315 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 3,205 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 570 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.