1143 Oxford Mills Ln · Sugar Land, TX 77479

$354,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2001 6,311 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $371k · at est. $93/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in a quiet neighborhood. Easy access for TX-99 and 59. House has waterproof laminated flooring and tiles. Study room with built ins. Kitchen upgrades with plenty of cabinet space. Also a big yard with a covered gazebo big enough for the family to barbecue. Property has never flooded.

Key facts

• Wonderful gazebo
• Recent roof
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• RECENT ROOF
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WONDERFUL GAZEBO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of NTRCA; Annual association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, tennis courts, sport court, picnic area; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2001; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14x14); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10x10)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas, zoned); Central air conditioning (electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Granite counters; One fireplace; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $355k).
• Recommended offer: $334k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brazos Bend El (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 739 students, 44% FRL); Sartartia Middle (math 69% / reading 71%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,440 students, 24% FRL); William B Travis H S (math 44% / reading 73%, grade C, #315 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 3,205 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 570 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $333,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,693
• List price: $354,900
• Delta: -4.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 Presley Way	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,049 (+2%)	6mo	$335,000	$163	69
1210 Cambrian Park Ct	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+12%)	6mo	$349,999	$155	69
1114 Foxland Chase St	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,315 (+15%)	5mo	$369,000	$159	67
1111 Cambrian Park Ct	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+12%)	8mo	$409,999	$181	66
4419 Zimmerly Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,993 (-1%)	10mo	$325,000	$163	65
918 Featherbrook Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,251 (+12%)	2mo	$311,000	$138	63
1110 Kerri Ct	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+12%)	4mo	$336,000	$148	61
4815 Knights Branch Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (+13%)	0mo	$328,000	$144	60
546 Ivy Cross Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,236 (+11%)	2mo	$365,000	$163	54
915 Featherbrook Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,274 (+13%)	10mo	$350,000	$154	50
5527 Santa Chase Lane Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,147 (+6%)	9mo	$345,000	$161	48
715 Tyler Run Run	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,268 (+12%)	8mo	$349,000	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-42,860
• Equity at exit: $52,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-39,953
• Equity at exit: $30,685

Cash invested: $99,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77479

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 570
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax from tax record: −$623 /mo · $7,481/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $354,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $559	-5% $458	+0% $358	+5% $258	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $204	+0% $358	+5% $512	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $448	base $358	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,725
• Closing costs: $10,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4315 Trailwood Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.5	2250	$5,800	$2.58	14d	1	0.62mi
107 High Meadows Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	3.0	2619	$2,600	$0.99	45d	1	1.03mi
1919 Canyon Crest Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.0	2478	$2,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $354,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $354,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $354,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $354,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $354,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $354,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $354,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    listed $354,900 Active 992-char remark
15. 2026-03-31
    historical
16. 2025-10-05
    status Active
17. 2025-09-30
    historical
18. 2025-05-13
    price $359,000
19. 2025-03-19
    listed $375,000 Active
20. 2024-05-23
    soldstatus
21. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Beautiful home in a quiet neighborhood. Easy access for TX-99 and 59. House has waterproof laminated flooring and tiles. Study room with built ins. Kitchen upgrades with plenty of cabinet space. Also a big yard with a covered gazebo big enough for the family to barbecue. Property has never flooded.

22. 2024-04-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Beautiful home in a quiet neighborhood. Easy access for TX-99 and 59. House has waterproof laminated flooring and tiles. Study room with built ins. Kitchen upgrades with plenty of cabinet space. Also a big yard with a covered gazebo big enough for the family to barbecue. Property has never flooded.

23. 2024-04-16
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Beautiful home in a quiet neighborhood. Easy access for TX-99 and 59. House has waterproof laminated flooring and tiles. Study room with built ins. Kitchen upgrades with plenty of cabinet space. Also a big yard with a covered gazebo big enough for the family to barbecue. Property has never flooded.

24. 2024-03-22
    listed $339,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Beautiful home in a quiet neighborhood. Easy access for TX-99 and 59. House has waterproof laminated flooring and tiles. Study room with built ins. Kitchen upgrades with plenty of cabinet space. Also a big yard with a covered gazebo big enough for the family to barbecue. Property has never flooded.

25. 2023-09-30
    historical
26. 2023-05-20
    price $364,998
27. 2023-04-18
    listed $369,998 Active
28. 2020-01-02
    soldstatus
29. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2019-12-12
    status Pending
31. 2019-12-01
    status Option Pending
32. 2019-10-29
    listed $239,900 Active
33. 2013-06-18
    soldstatus
34. 2013-06-17
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2013-06-03
    status Pending, Continue to Show
36. 2013-05-23
    status Option Pending
37. 2013-05-15
    listed $194,500 Active
38. 2009-02-02
    historical
39. 2008-11-04
    listed $188,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,481 · $623/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,481 · $623/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,880
• − Property taxes: −$7,481
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,747
• − Management: −$3,747
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable loss: −$1,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $4,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Land, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 92,221
• Household income: $156,735
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1207.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 47% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Other Indo-European 16% Chinese 13% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.96%
• Current HPI: 227.7544
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+87.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $354,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-20 Price Changed $364,998 HARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $369,998 HARMLS
• 2020-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-12-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-12-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-29 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2013-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-15 Listed $194,500 HARMLS
• 2009-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-11-04 Listed $188,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,481 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.