25 Fawn Rd Lot 1

Palenville, NY 12477

$67,700B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 166 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$355
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $523/mo
• Annual: $6,272/yr
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.09%
• DSCR: 2.47
• 1% rule: 3.16%
• Cash to close: $18,956

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $468 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,125 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.2% in Palenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.