25 Fawn Rd Lot 1 · Palenville, NY 12477

$67,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $69/sqft · 76% below area $700/mo HOA · 33% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

Key facts

• Private driveway
• End lot
• Private wooded lot

Tags

• END LOT
• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• BAR STYLE COUNTER LEDGE
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.2% in Palenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,125 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $468 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $59,576 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.09%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,100
• List price: $67,700
• Delta: -75.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $22,780
• Equity at exit: $10,094

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $64,579
• Equity at exit: $5,853

Cash invested: $18,956 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12477

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$355
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$700
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $67,700

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,925
• Closing costs: $2,031
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $700 · $8,400/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $67,700 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,700 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,700 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,700 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,700 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,700 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $67,700 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,700 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,700 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,700 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $67,700 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,700 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,700 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,700 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,700 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $67,700 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    status Active 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

18. 2026-05-02
    historical 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

19. 2026-05-01
    price $67,700 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

20. 2026-04-15
    price $77,000 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

21. 2026-02-10
    price $84,400 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

22. 2026-01-13
    price $89,400 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

23. 2026-01-01
    listed $89,900 Active 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home located on a desirable end lot in the Blue Mountain Mobile Home Park in Saugerties. Set on an end lot that is wooded with a low monthly HOA of just $700 (all taxes are included plus water, sewer and road maintenance), this bright and airy home offers an open-concept living room and kitchen with a bar-style counter ledge making a great breakfast area, white cabinetry, abundant cabinet and counter space, and new laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy easy entertaining on the covered front deck, perfect for BBQs, along with a private driveway for parking. The home features central air, washer/dryer hookups, and a spacious primary bedroom, with both bedrooms offering carpet. The bathroom is generously sized with a tub/shower combo and large vanity. Updates include new flooring, windows, siding, gutters, front door, a furnace replaced in 2020, plus a new roof and front deck in 2021. Conveniently located approximately 100 miles from NYC and close to Saugerties’ charming village, known for its antique shops, art galleries, restaurants, Opus 40, the historic lighthouse, and vibrant arts scene. Once you visit Saugerties you will fall in love from the quaint shops to the wonderful community. Priced to sell—call today, this one won’t last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,792
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − HOA: −$8,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,969
• Taxable income: $6,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $4,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Skyline manufactured home is move-in ready with new laminate flooring and central air. It offers a bright and airy interior with an open-concept living room and kitchen, and a covered front deck for outdoor entertaining.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both update wood paneling — modernizes interior and adds value
• Both install new carpet — improves comfort and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both update wood paneling — modernizes interior and adds value ↑
• Both install new carpet — improves comfort and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saugerties Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,897
• Composite: 41.3/100
• National rank: #3515
• State rank: #419 of 590 in NY

Livability — Palenville

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1125
• US rank: #23193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ulster County · 56,183 people
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $80,861
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.47%
• Current HPI: 327.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $67,700 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $77,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $84,400 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $89,400 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listed $89,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid