1307 Dodd Mtn. Rd

Clinton, AR 72153

$260,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,100 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 358 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-762/mo
• Annual: $-9,143/yr
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.56%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-762 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (42.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (49.6% below list).
• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (49.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in AR, #4,397 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $260k implies a 465% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.8% in Clinton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.