1307 Dodd Mtn. Rd · Shirley, AR 72153

$260,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 357 Days on market

Built 2024 15 ac lot $84/sqft · 18% below area Est $316k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Dodd Mountain Tower" 7 story potential for one of a kind home or destination rental. .. beautiful setting along edge of bluff. .The exterior is close to finished. .. the interior is unfinished. .. the number of bedrooms and baths is what owner has planned but can be changed by new owner. .. square footage is estimated. .. small travel trailer is included as well as several building materials. .. .small storage building. .. bath in garage (tub/shower and commode). .. .price may change as more construction is finished. .. agents must read confidential remarks. ..

Key facts

• Bath in garage
• 7 story potential
• 14.72 acre lot

Tags

• 7 STORY POTENTIAL
• EXTERIOR IS CLOSE TO FINISHED
• SMALL STORAGE BUILDING
• BATH IN GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-762 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (42.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (49.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (49.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#261 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $260k implies a 465% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,994 (49.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.56%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,806
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -17.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $38,491
• Equity at exit: $176,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $148,670
• Equity at exit: $330,997

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72153

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $149,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-582	-5% $-672	+0% $-762	+5% $-852	+10% $-942
Rent	-10% $-865	-5% $-814	+0% $-762	+5% $-710	+10% $-658
Rate	-1.0pp $-631	-0.5pp $-696	base $-762	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-898

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,000 Active 357 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $260,000 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 353 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 352 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $260,000 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Price Change 349 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $260,000 Price Change 348 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $260,000 Price Change 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    pricestatus $260,000 Price Change 344 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,000 Active 344 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 343 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 342 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 339 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 338 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 337 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 336 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 335 DOM
20. 2025-06-27
    listed $360,000 New Listing 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    "Dodd Mountain Tower" 7 story potential for one of a kind home or destination rental. .. beautiful setting along edge of bluff. .The exterior is close to finished. .. the interior is unfinished. .. the number of bedrooms and baths is what owner has planned but can be changed by new owner. .. square footage is estimated. .. small travel trailer is included as well as several building materials. .. .small storage building. .. bath in garage (tub/shower and commode). .. .price may change as more construction is finished. .. agents must read confidential remarks. ..

21. 2023-09-12
    soldstatus $46,000
22. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $31,000
23. 2021-04-05
    soldstatus $116,500
24. 2011-12-02
    soldstatus $60,000
25. 2004-12-21
    soldstatus $26,000
26. 2002-09-21
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$14,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #18846

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,982
• Population (ZIP): 3,982

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.76%
• Current HPI: 273.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1340.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-27 Listed $360,000 CARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $116,500 Public Records
• 2011-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $17 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.