3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,847 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,271/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,255
Tax + insurance
−$278
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$687
Net cashflow
$51/mo
Annual
$613/yr
Cap rate
6.44%
Cash-on-cash
0.51%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$120,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($613/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (23.9% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $327k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bear Creek Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 286 students, 82% FRL); Boca Ciega High School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,423 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $68k; list at $430k implies a 532% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,271/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1371% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0FZKC887NN4NYG
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29