39820 US Highway 19 N #182

Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$99,900B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$380
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $505/mo
• Annual: $6,060/yr
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.66%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $100k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.